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HomeeBOOKS REVIEWS Hot Hand: The Statistics Behind Sports' Greatest Streaks
Hot Hand: The Statistics Behind Sports' Greatest Streaks
Tuesday, 26 June 2012
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Hot Hand: The Statistics Behind Sports' Greatest Streaks by Alan Reifman
Why streaks happen and why they matter ?
Alan Reifman divulges the psychological and physical science behind streaks, analyzes the odds of streaks and why they happen
and studies famous streaks, the players behind them, and their long-term effects
'Hot Hand' also analyzes famous (and some not so famous) athletes and teams who have done things
in streaks -- win games, lose games, make baskets, get hits in baseball, etc.
"... Should coaches stay with the player who's 'in a zone'? Should teammates feed the ball to the one who's 'on fire'? Should athletes play with more confidence after making shots or
getting hits, and with depleted confidence if not? Alan Reifman’s compelling answers are both persuasive and surprising, and will enable any coach, player, or fan to think smarter. ..." David G. Myers, professor of psychology, Hope College, and author of
Intuition: Its Powers and Perils
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in a Google Books 'limited preview' !
The Hot Hand in Sports by Alan Reifman
Fifty years ago today, March 2, 1962, Wilt Chamberlain of the then-Philadelphia Warriors scored an NBA record 100 points in a single game. The game was played in Hershey, Pennsylvania,
as the Warriors defeated the New York Knicks, 169-147.
Chamberlain, who lived from 1936-1999, stood 7-foot-1 and was associated with many amazing statistical feats
(e.g., a 33-game winning streak with the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers; playing over 1,000 games without ever fouling out). However, it is the 100-point game that is his signature
accomplishment. ..."
"... our focus is statistical analysis, so that is what we shall pursue. As can be seen from the box score of the game, Chamberlain hit 36-of-63 from the floor for 72 of his points
and went 28-of-32 from the free-throw line.It is the latter performance, a nearly 90% success rate (.875), that is really amazing.
Wilt's free throw percentage during the 1961-62 season was .613, which actually was the best single-season free-throw accuracy rate of his career. Thus, on this night, he really
overcame his free-throwing difficulties to make the 100-point game possible. ..."
"... Noting that Chamberlain had made 21-of-22 free-throws through the first three quarters of play, Pomerantz asks in his book, "How does a sixty percent free-throw shooter throughout
the season convert ninety-five percent on a night in Hershey?" (p. 116).
Updating the percentages to reflect the full game and rephrasing the question a bit, we can ask how likely
it is that a .613 shooter would hit 28 (or more) free throws out of 32, assuming independence of outcomes (i.e., what happens on one shot having no impact on the next shot, like coin
tossing). ..."
"... Pomerantz tried to answer his original question about how Chamberlain could have been so successful on free-throws (which we now know to be a roughly 1-in-1,000 phenomenon) by
claiming that the baskets in Hershey featured "soft," rickety rims.
When a ball hits a soft rim, the reasoning goes, it will bounce gently around and possibly fall through the hoop, rather than banging hard against it and flying off. Whether that's a valid explanation or not, I can't say.
Still, Wilt must have been shooting the ball close enough to the basket on his free-throw attempts to (allegedly) benefit from the soft rims.
A famous quote from the writings of the late Harvard paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould is that, "Long streaks always are, and must be, a matter of extraordinary luck imposed upon great
skill." Indeed. ..." Alan Reifman
One of the Most Fascinating and Little-understood Phenomena in Sports
This title divulges the psychological and physical science behind streaks. It analyzes the odds of streaks and why they happen. It studies famous streaks, the players behind them, and
their long-term effects.
Upon witnessing a series of outstanding (or awful) performances, a sports fan or announcer may wonder, What are the odds of that happening? In fact, statisticians have shown that,
for the most part, athletic streaks occur about as often as would be expected by random chance; if one flipped a coin a thousand times, one would find many 'streaks' of several
consecutive heads (or tails) along the way.
This counterintuitive finding, which implies that the notion of momentum in sports is greatly overstated, is certain to create a thought-provoking experience for readers.
After a brief initial foundation on the study of streaks and relevant methods of statistical analysis, Alan Reifman focuses on actual sports streaks, from the famous -
Joe DiMaggio getting at least one hit in fifty-six consecutive games in 1941 and the Los Angeles Lakers winning thirty-three straight basketball games in the 1971-72 season -
to the less well-known, such as the University of Dayton men's basketball team going 0-for-24 on three-point shot attempts in a 2008 game.
Reifman also examines psychological and physiological mechanisms in sports performance as well as implications for coaching and sport psychology practice. For stats freaks and regular
fans alike, "Hot Hand" illuminates one of the most fascinating and little-understood phenomena in sports.
Synopsis
Upon witnessing a series of outstanding (or awful) performances, a sports fan or announcer may wonder, What are the odds of that happening? In fact, statisticians have shown that,
for the most part, athletic streaks occur about as often as would be expected by random chance.
If one flips a coin a thousand times, many “streaks” of consecutive heads (or tails)
will occur along the way. This counterintuitive finding implies that the notion of momentum in sports is greatly overstated.
After a brief initial foundation on the study of streaks and relevant methods of statistical analysis, Alan Reifman focuses on actual sports streaks, from the famous—Joe DiMaggio
getting at least one hit in fifty-six consecutive games in 1941 and the Los Angeles Lakers winning thirty-three straight games in the 1971–72 season—to the less well-known, such as
the University of Dayton men’s basketball team going 0-for-24 on three-point shot attempts in a 2008 game.
Reifman also examines psychological and physiological mechanisms in sports
performance, as well as the implications of those mechanisms for coaching and sport psychology practice.
Thought-provoking for stats freaks and regular fans alike, Hot Hand illuminates one of the most fascinating and little-understood phenomena in sports.
Would You Want to Browse and Look Inside
"Hot Hand: The Statistics Behind Sports' Greatest Streaks by Alan Reifman"
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Praises for:
Hot Hand: The Statistics Behind Sports' Greatest Streaks by Alan Reifman
"... Reifman gives us a comprehensive and enjoyable review of what sports figures, journalists, and scientists have had to say about streakiness in sports—with a few clear lessons
in statistical analysis thrown in for good measure. It won’t end the debate about the existence of the hot hand, but it should raise it to a higher plane. ..." Tom Gilovich, professor of psychology, Cornell University, and author of How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life
"... Dr. Reifman's unique findings on sports streaks will amaze sports fans. He uses intriguing methods to analyze streaks. A must read ! ..." Kristy Curry, head women’s basketball coach, Texas Tech University
"... Should coaches stay with the player who's 'in a zone'? Should teammates feed the ball to the one who's 'on fire'? Should athletes play with more confidence after making shots or
getting hits, and with depleted confidence if not? Alan Reifman’s compelling answers are both persuasive and surprising, and will enable any coach, player, or fan to think smarter. ..." David G. Myers, professor of psychology, Hope College, and author of
Intuition: Its Powers and Perils
Table of Contents
Machine generated contents note: I. Foundations
1. Introduction
2. Statistical Methods
3. Evidence Supportive of a Hot Hand
4. "We Are a Team of Runs"
5. Evidence Against a Hot Hand: Basketball
6. Evidence Against a Hot Hand: Baseball
7. Revisiting Golf (Briefly)
II. Extreme Hotness
8. Joe DiMaggio
9. Really Hot Teams
10. Hot Basketball Shooting
11. Hot Hands in Other Sports
III. Cold Streaks and Oddities
12. Cold Streaks
13. Unusual Streaks (Neither Hot Nor Cold)
IV. Two Noteworthy Athletes
14. Alex Rodriguez
15. Kobe Bryant
V. Moving Forward in Our Understanding
16. Theories of What Helps (or Hinders) Athletes from Exhibiting Streakiness
-and Why Fans Believe in It
17. Conclusions.
Alan Reifman teaches in the College of Human Sciences at Texas Tech University and writes the popular blog Hot Hand. He lives in Lubbock, Texas.
Professor Alan Reifman crunches numbers for Jeremy Lin’s winning streak putting “Linsanity” in perspective.
Jeremy Lin, the 23-year-old point guard of Taiwanese descent has led the New York Knicks to seven straight wins, so far. How rare is this streak?
Alan Reifman, a professor in Texas Tech University’s Department of Human Development and Family Studies, who studies sports streakiness and conducts “hot hand” research,
can speak to sports trends and statistical probability.
Talking Points:
• Jeremy Lin as a modern-era record breaker
• Lin’s shooting percentages and how they compare to other leading NBA point guards
• Lin is not the only NBA player on a hot-streak right now
Quotes
“The New York Knicks’ Jeremy Lin has recently captured the imagination of sports fans with his creative moves to the basket and hot shooting.”
“He’s achieved some statistical milestones that are not easy for players at the guard position to attain. On one measure of shooting percentage, Lin has recently done something
that the L.A. Lakers’ Kobe Bryant hasn’t done in more than a year, and the Chicago Bulls’ Derrick Rose hasn’t done for nearly two years.”
• Author:Prof. Alan Reifman • Format: eBook & Book • Book Edition Number of Pages: 192 ~ 9 x 6 x 0.9 inches • File Size: 17304 KB • Browse Duration in Minutes: 60 • Wireless Delivery: Included within a minute of placing your order • Simultaneous Device Usage: Unlimited • Lending: Enabled • Text-to-Speech: Enabled • Publisher: Potomac Books Inc. • Publishing Date: NEW ON November 30, 2011 • eBook Edition: NEW ON November 30, 2011 • Book Edition Binding: Hardcover • Book Edition Shipping Weight: 3 pounds • Language: English
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